Analysis of cycling potential

This document presents the results of analysis carried out to understand the potential for growth in cycle travel. The goal of this analysis is to better understand the nature of this potential, in terms of what type of trips, people and places offer the best opportunity for growth.

The Mayor of London has declared his aim of delivering a cycling revolution in London by 2026; delivering a 400% increase (from 2001) in the number of cycling trips and a 5% mode share for cycling. This report presents the results of analysis carried out by TfL Group Planning to understand the potential for growth in cycle travel and the nature of this potential, in terms of the type of trips, people and places offering the best opportunity for growth. The analysis draws on two new tools developed by TfL which, separately and in combination, provide a fascinating and unique insight into where the potential to increase cycling can be found, and help the Mayor, TfL, and London’s boroughs plan effective and good value for money policy interventions.

In total, 4.3 million trips per average day have been identified as potentially cyclable, equivalent to 23% of trips by all modes and 35% of trips by mechanised modes. Analysis of the characteristics of these trips shows that:

• Nearly two thirds of potentially cyclable trips are currently made by car with the remainder largely made by bus;
• Four in 10 potentially cyclable trips are made for shopping and leisure purposes and just under a quarter for work purposes;
• Of the 4.3 million potentially cyclable trips made every day, 3.5 million would take less than 20 minutes for most people to cycle.

The greatest unmet potential for growth can be found within outer London – 54% of potentially cyclable trips – and only 5% of the total potential in outer London is actually cycled, compared to 14% of that for central London (defined as the Central Activities Zone, broadly equivalent to Zone 1) and 9% for inner London.

A simple comparison of those making current and potentially cyclable trips shows that, whilst frequent cyclists are typically white, male, aged between 25 and 44, and on a higher than average income, much of the potential comes from women, ethnic minorities, younger and older people, and those on a lower income.

Nevertheless, there remains significant potential for growth amongst existing cyclists and people similar to them.