Automated Driving Systems: Understanding Future Collision Patterns

This study considered a scenario where traditional and autonomous vehicles coexist on UK roads – looking specifically at one and two vehicle collisions.

It concluded 22% of collisions – in which one of the vehicles was replaced by a ‘level 4’ automated vehicle – could be avoided.

This type of vehicle is controlled for the entire dynamic driving task, so that the human driver is not required or expected to intervene.

Based on the prediction that 8%-19% of the total car fleet will be autonomous by 2040, the report estimates that up to 650 fatal and serious injury collisions could be prevented annually.

It also suggests there will be a reduction in collisions at junctions (10%), collisions involving vulnerable road users (10%) and single vehicle run off road collisions (12%).

However, the report bemoans a lack of publicly available data on the introduction of automated technology and its behaviour in near misses and collision scenarios.