The modelled impact of a range of GDL schemes – an update of the 2014 TRL report

Graduated driver licensing would have less of an impact now, in terms of reducing casualties and collisions, than if it had been introduced in 2014.

That is the conclusion in this report, produced by the RAC Foundation to update previous estimates of the benefits GDL might bring if introduced in Great Britain.

The report assesses the potential gains to be had from a range of typical graduated licensing components used either singularly or combined.

It estimates that the introduction of a ‘full GDL system’ could currently result in 281 fewer people killed and seriously injured (KSI) each year in collisions involving drivers aged 17-19 years. The comparable number in 2014 was 433.

The total number of casualties could fall by as many as 2,733, compared with 4,478 in 2014.

Looking at specific elements of GDL, the implementation of night time driving restrictions (no driving between 9pm and 6am unless accompanied by a 25-year-old) could lead to 126 fewer KSIs and 894 casualties annually.

Passenger restrictions (no 15-24 year old passengers unless accompanied by a 25-year-old) could see KSIs fall by 137 and total casualties by 1,226.