National propensity to cycle: first phase development study

This research paper looks at work undertaken for the DfT on the National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT), a prototype tool available online which allows users to see commuting cycling potential at area and route level.

The report says analysis of propensities to cycle has, for the first time, provided detailed comparison of cycling patterns in England and the Netherlands. This includes analysis on how propensity to cycle varies by age and gender, and how this interacts with distance.

The report includes two evidence reviews which identify a clear stated preference for separation from busy or fast motor traffic, and an indication that creating such routes can increase cycling levels. The report says preferences for separation from traffic are particularly strong for women and appear also to be stronger for older people.

The report says the NPCT can be used to predict cycling flow rates in numerous scenarios including: doubling the amount of cycling, more electric bikes, women and men being equally likely to cycle; and if cycling became as popular as it is in the Netherlands.

The report also assesses the impact of a number of cycling funds and grants including the ‘Cycling city ambition grant’, ‘Local Sustainable Transport Fund’, ‘Sustainable travel projects’ and ‘CycleNetXChange’.