Investigating the rates and impacts of near misses and related incidents among UK cyclists

Highlights
• Fear of injury is a barrier to cycling and experiencing non-injury incidents (near misses) may contribute to this.
• UK cyclists experience very high rates of non-injury incidents, by comparison with reported injury rates.
• The most frightening incidents involve moving motor vehicles, particularly larger vehicles.
• Problematic passing manoeuvres are especially frequent and frightening.
• Higher rates are experienced in the morning peak and by slower cyclists.

Abstract
This paper investigates the occurrence of non-injury incidents among cyclists in the UK, seeking to (i) generate a rate that can be compared with injury rates, (ii) analyse factors affecting incident rates, and (iii) analyse factors affecting the impact of incidents on cyclists.

The researchers collected data on non-injury cycling ‘incidents’ (near misses and other frightening and/or annoying incidents) from 1,692 online diaries of cycle trip stages and incidents, participants having signed up in advance for a specific day. Following data cleaning and coding, a dataset was created covering 1,532 diary days and 3,994 records of incidents occurring within the UK. Incident rates were calculated and compared to injury risks for cyclists. Cross-tabulation and regression were used to identify factors affecting incident rates and the effect an incident has on the cyclist.

Frightening or annoying non-injury incidents, unlike slight injuries, are an everyday experience for most cyclistswho participated in this study. For regular cyclists ‘very scary’ incidents (rated as 3 on a 0–3 scale) are on average a weekly experience, with deliberate aggression experienced monthly. Per mile, non-injury incidents were more frequent for people making shorter and slower trips. People aged over 55 were at lower risk, as were those cycling at the weekend and outside the morning peak. Incidents that involved motor vehicles, especially those involving larger vehicles, were more frightening than those that did not.

Conclusions
Near miss and other non-injury incidents are widespread in the UK and may have a substantial impact on cycling experience and uptake. Policy and research should initially target the most frightening types of incident, such as very close passes and incidents involving large vehicles. Further attention needs to be paid to the experiences of groups under-represented among cyclists, such as women making shorter trips.