Organisation: Newcastle University (School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences)
Date uploaded: 5th June 2014
Date published/launched: July 2013
This paper suggests some diagnostics to check the assumptions underpinning the standard estimation framework for mobile saftey cameras throughout Northumbria.
It is well documented that regression to the mean (RTM) can exaggerate the effectiveness of road safety measures and, since the 1980s, an empirical Bayes (EB) estimation framework has become the gold standard for separating real treatment effects from those of RTM.
The paper suggests some diagnostics to check the assumptions underpinning the standard estimation framework. It also shows that, relative to a fully Bayesian treatment, the EB method is over-optimistic when quantifying the variability of estimates of casualty frequency.
We assess the sensitivity of estimates of treatment effectiveness, as well as the expected monetary value of prevention owing to the implementation of the safety cameras, to different model specifications, which include the estimation of trend and the construction of informative priors for some parameters.
For more information contact:
Dr. Neil Thorpe